When Caleb Williams, quarterback of Chicago Bears steps onto the field on Monday night, the whole NFC feels a little jittery. The Bears (2‑2) travel to Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, to take on a surging Washington Commanders squad (3‑2). It’s Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season, and the matchup is being billed as a pivotal inter‑divisional clash on Monday Night Football.
Why This Game Matters
Both teams sit near the top of their divisions. The Bears sit fourth in the NFC North, clinging to a two‑game win streak that could catapult them into the playoff conversation if they keep the momentum. Meanwhile, the Commanders sit second in the NFC East and have already posted a perfect 5‑0‑0 ATS (against the spread) record at home. A win for Washington would cement a three‑game home winning streak and push the Bears further behind the division leader. The twist? The betting line has Washington as a 5.5‑point favorite, with an over/under of 49.5 points – a number that fantasy analysts are already dissecting for potential value.
Context: Recent Form and Key Numbers
Chicago returned from a bye week after a nail‑biting 25‑24 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on September 28. That win hinged on a blocked field goal in the final seconds – the kind of drama that fuels a team’s confidence. The Bears have posted a respectable 330 yards of offense per game but are conceding 379.5 yards on defense, suggesting a potential mismatch against Washington’s 350‑plus yards‑allowed average.
Washington, on the other hand, rolled over the Los Angeles Chargers 27‑10 on Sunday, October 12. Quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 59.2 % of his passes and tossed zero interceptions, racking up 231 yards against a Chargers defense that was already looking shaky. The Commanders have a 7‑2‑0 ATS record in their last nine games, and they’re 5‑0‑0 ATS at home this season – a streak that makes the spread look inviting to many bettors.
In terms of player health, Washington’s star wideout Terry McLaurin (quad) is listed as questionable. Daniel Kohn of SportsLine reported a possible miss, but Sportshandle.com later suggested McLaurin may return. The uncertainty adds another layer of intrigue for fantasy owners.
Expert Projections on Monday Night FootballNorthwest Stadium
Fantasy analysts Marcas Grant, Adam Rank, and NFL Network host Kimmi Chex gathered on “NFL Fantasy Live” to break down the matchup. Their consensus?
- Spread pick: Commanders -3.5. The home‑field advantage and ATS record outweigh the Bears’ recent road win.
- Total: Under 49.5. Both defenses have shown the ability to bend but not break, and Washington often eases the pace after building a lead.
- Player prop – Passing yards: Daniels Over 221.5. Even without McLaurin, Daniels can thread the ball, especially if the Bears lean on Kyler Gordon in the secondary.
- Value play – Anytime TD: Rookie Jacory Croskey‑Merritt (Bears). He’s been used near the goal line as a red‑zone decoy while the Commanders focus on Daniels’ mobility.
Grant also highlighted Williams’ impressive 8‑2 touchdown‑to‑interception ratio through four games, noting that a strong showing could swing the spread. Rank warned that Chicago’s running game has been “inconsistent,” which might limit their ability to control the clock against a Commanders team that can strike quickly.
What the Numbers Say About the Matchup
Looking at the raw data:
- Washington’s defense has surrendered an average of 347 total yards per game – the 5th‑best in the league.
- Chicago’s defense allows 379.5 yards per game, ranking 20th overall.
- The Bears average 22.8 points per game, while the Commanders are sitting at 24.3 points per game.
- Both teams have a turnover margin close to zero, meaning a single pick‑six could prove decisive.
- Historical head‑to‑head: Washington leads the series 28‑25‑1, with the last meeting in 2024 decided by a last‑second Hail Mary.
These figures suggest a tight, defense‑first affair. If the Commanders can force a few three‑and‑out drives, they’ll likely keep the total under the projected 49.5 points.
Stakeholder Reactions
Mike Tierney, CBS Sports analyst, praised Washington’s home record but admitted his own track record (31‑17‑2 on his last 50 Bears picks) gives him “a slight edge” in predicting a Bears upset. He didn’t disclose a specific pick, leaving fans to guess his hidden bias.
Fans in Landover have already painted the stadium with a sea of red and black, hoping the Commanders can silence the visiting crowd. Meanwhile, Chicago’s core fanbase is buzzing about whether Williams can finally lead the Bears to a road‑winning streak that stretches beyond two games.
Implications for the Playoff Picture
If Washington covers the spread and pushes the total under, they’ll solidify a de‑facto lead in the NFC East, forcing the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants into a chase. For the Bears, a win would be their third straight, a feat they haven’t achieved since 2022, and could catapult them into a wildcard conversation.
The game also provides a litmus test for both quarterbacks. Daniels, still recovering from a knee injury that sidelined him for two games, will need to stay clean and manage the clock. Williams, on the other hand, is under pressure to prove his clutch pedigree after a mixed early‑season performance.
What to Watch On Game Day
Key moments to keep an eye on:
- First-quarter field position: Early drives will likely dictate whether the over/under stays low.
- McLaurin’s status: If he suits up, expect Washington to stretch the field and force the Bears’ secondary into coverage mismatches.
- Red‑zone efficiency: Both teams have proven they can punch it in from short distance – Croskey‑Merritt could be the surprise factor.
- Turnover battle: A forced fumble or interception could swing momentum and affect betting lines late in the game.
Regardless of the final score, the matchup will likely be a blueprint for how the NFC North and East shape up as the season hits its midpoint.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the game impact the Bears' playoff chances?
A win would give Chicago its third straight victory and improve its standing in the NFC North, keeping a wildcard berth realistic. A loss could drop the Bears to third place and force them to chase the division leader in the remaining weeks.
Will Terry McLaurin play, and how will his availability affect the game?
Reports are mixed. If McLaurin suits up, Washington gains a deep‑threat option that could open up the running game for the Bears. If he sits out, the Commanders will rely more on a balanced attack featuring Jayden Daniels and the short‑yardage receivers.
What are the best fantasy props to consider?
Analysts favor Jayden Daniels over 221.5 passing yards, especially if McLaurin returns. For value, rookie running back Jacory Croskey‑Merritt is a smart pick for an anytime‑touchdown prop given his red‑zone usage.
Why are bettors leaning toward the Under 49.5 points?
Both defenses have been stout this season, and Washington often slows the pace after building a lead. The combination of a strong Bears defense and a Commanders offense that can control the clock suggests a low‑scoring affair.
When is the next big test for each team after this game?
The Bears head to Green Bay to face the Packers in Week 7, a divisional rivalry that could determine the NFC North leader. Washington travels to New York to take on the Giants, a matchup that will test their ability to win on the road.
